INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS A TARGET-CENTRIC APPROACH PDF
Editorial Reviews. Review. "Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a top notch text, written by an expert, and aimed at serious intelligence courses. 1 The Intelligence Process 8. The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict. The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric. Intelligence Analysis a Target Centric Approach - Ebook download as PDF File . pdf), Text File .txt) or view presentation slides online. intelligence analysis.
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Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach in that spirit. Clark identifies two goals for the book: “to redefine the intelligence process to help make all parts. Trove: Find and get Australian resources. Books, images, historic newspapers, maps, archives and more. The target-centric approach to intelligence is a method of intelligence analysis that Robert M. . Hendler, James, Semantic Web and Target-Centric Intelligence: Building Flexible Systems that Foster Collaboration (PDF), retrieved .
Each event caused fifty years. The format has for customers to ask questions and get answers. Intelligence professionals can spend their entire careers provement. In many cases. This book is written primarily for the practicing intelligence analyst. A number of chapters have been rewritten to define a accomplish these three tasks fay bringing together all participants in process that would address the shortcomings identified in the Iraqi WMD the production of sound intelligence.
Several current examples have been added to emphasize lessons about What I call a target-centric intelligence process helps analysts and customers the intelligence process. The book offers insights that intelli- The intelligence process should accomplish three basic tasks. The book highlights these concepts report published in March These principles should make the book a valuable refer- unclassified level.
But if an intelligence comrmmiiy is interested in real im. These two documents have provided per. All can be useful in making intelligence predictions. I thank Nancy Geltman.
Israel is regarded as having one of the world's best intelligence services. As noted in the preface to this book. But in the intelligence leadership. When the attack. British intelligence failed in a series of poor analyses of their Japanese opponent. Acknowledgments Louis Pasteur Many people throughout the U. Clark analyst. Colleen Ganey.
Professor Jason A.. Debbie Hardin. German deserters who told the Russians about the impending attack were considered provocateurs and shot on Stalin's orders. In addition W e learn more from our failures than from our successes. All statements of fact. This material has been reviewed by the CIA Introduction to prevent the disclosure of classified information.
I am especially grateful to reviewers within and outside the U. Stalin's generals were surprised. The Japanese tanks proved highly effective in driving the British out of Malaya and back to Singapore. Thomas Copeland Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. He was unprepared Reston. Virginia for a war with Nazi Germany. I wish to thank Steven Cook. I cannot name them all. On the way to the debacle. Why We Fail Belinda Josey.
Thomas of West Virginia University and why we fail. In one of the greatest military defeats that Britain ever suffered. So this book begins with an overview of of Geneva College. So the natural tendency is to share the minimum nec- force. Mindset can manifest itself in the form of many Intelligence is a team sport.
Defense Force was caught by surprise when. There was abundant evidence different. On April 2. But any organization that requires secrecy to pending attack had his report suppressed by his superior. Argentina wanted Great Britain to hand over sources due to compromise. It leads to the creation of a "mirror-image". Three themes are common in intel- ligence failures. Britain's tactic was to conduct prolonged diplomatic negotia.
Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach
In this atmosphere. Argentine marines landed tions. Britains Latin America Current Intelli. The problem is likely to persist until the incentives to share outweigh cussed in this book is not the failure to collect intelligence. They are disinclined to draw on resources outside their own organiza- invasion was not imminent. The Israeli intelligence officer who correctly predicted the im. Syria before attacking. The sified information can be career ending. It has long-term payoffs in ac- and occupied the Falklands.
The Israeli mental intelligence organizations. The penalty for improperly handling clas- tians launched an attack on Yom Kippur. October 6. Israel's leaders considered their over. At senior levels. Effective teams require cohesion.
Sharing requires openness. In each of these the benefits of concealment. Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively to Share Information In each of the cases cited at the beginning of this introduction. Israeli intelligence was And the root causes for the failure to share remain. Israel's past fall apart. At lower levels in the organization. Any bu- want to face the possibility of an Argentine attack because il would reaucracy has a wealth of tools for hoarding information.
But the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office did not essary to avoid criticism and to protect the really valuable material. The first part of the book describes a col- from Israel's point of view. But in many cases analysts have been able to work closely with policy- seven years' service. As an example of how methodologies proliferate.
This individualistic approach to analysis has resulted in a great variety of analytic methods. Intelligence analysts should accept partial responsibility when their cus. I was only wrong twice. The British Foreign Office did not predict sults or products. Methodologies often allow unchallenged assumptions to drive their analysis.
Studies have found that no baseline. Josef Stalin made an identical mistake for the same Intelligence analysts have often been reluctant to closely engage one class reason prior to Operation Barbarossa.
The safest weather prediction.
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The last chapter of the book discusses ways to ensure that an Argentine invasion of the Falklands because. This book is about that process. The Yom Kippur attack was not predicted because. No model existed anywhere for such an economic transition. An extreme case is the story both the Falklands and Yom Kippur examples illustrate. This book is for intelligence analysts.
It develops the idea of creating a model of the lenges to engage the customer during the analysis process and to ensure that intelligence target and extracting useful information from that model.
During the along a straight line. Any large intelligence community is made up out conscious awareness subsequent evidence that supports the of a variety of disciplines.
In this book I devote considerable discussion to the vital importance of sumption that others will act "rationally" as that is defined in one's analysts' being able objectively to assess and understand their customers and own culture.
In some cases. But all intelligence analysis methods derive from a fundamental process. As tomorrow's weather will be like todays. These the resulting intelligence is taken into account when the customer must act. Freakonomics New York: But the methods all work within a funda- mental process: Central Intelligence Agency.
Leavitt and Stephen J. Overview There also are standard. Amory Lovins andL. Sherman Kent noted that an analyst has three wishes: Notes 1. March This is not solely the customer's fault. Rob Johnson. Intelligence failures have three common themes that have a long history: To be believed. Intelligence Community Washington..
Success comes from sharing the target model with collectors and customers. They might in. Analytic Culture. University Press of America. This book is about an intelligence process that can reduce such failures. Anolylie Culture. These analysis techniques together form a Good intel- ligence requires teamwork and sharing. And to exercise a positive influence on policy.
Analytic Culture in iheU. No- cussed earlier. The key 5. William Prillaman and Michael Dempsey. All analysis naturally do this. Center for to avoiding failures is to share the model with collectors of information and the Study of Intelligence. Report of the Commission. A number of these techniques are presented throughout the book in 10 Steven D. Harold P Ford.
Mass Destruction. An analyst must have a 7. Center for the Study of Intelligence. A large intelligence community develops many analytic methods to deal with the variety of issues that it confronts. But chapters 1 to 14 should help an ana. What's Wrong with the Con- thing. Analysts have an obligation to ensure that cus- tomers not only receive the intelligence but fully understand it.
While there are no universal methods that work for 6. Estimative Intelligence Lanham.. Princeton University. Hunler Lovins. John Hughes-Wilson. There exists some justification for the harsh penalty placed on improper use of classified in- clude pattern analysis. Summary www. Rebel fighter jockeys deliver traditional and less expensive means. Writers there- formation is usually there. However parties can be allies in one conflict. The same information can be both intelligence and news.
The target is an consist of any competitive or opposing action resulting From the divergence of entity—typically a person. Food riots in Somalia can be both if the cus- The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict tomer takes action on the information. This definition does not exclude the use of openly available sources.
Because conflict can Finally. The people who collect intelligence information and ex. In intelligence. End of movie. The in.
There can be many different levels of conflict. Context determines whether another party is an opponent or 1 an ally. A typ- John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt. G eorge Lucas's original Star Wars movie describes the final stages of a human intelligence operation. RAND Corp. The intelligence quently with concealment. After all. What distinguishes intelligence from plain news is support for operations. The Intelligence cracess two or more parties' ideas or interests. A weather report is actionable.
France and the United States are usually military allies. Intelligence is about reducing uncertainty in conflict. The heroine. If competition or negotiation exists. The answer is that most of the methods of in- the plans to the rebel forces.
Not all actionable in- volume of irrelevant material that has to be examined and discarded All in. The Intelligence Process Reducing uncertainty requires that intelligence obtain information that the opponent in a conflict prefers to conceal.
The primary customer of intelligence intelligence are due to inadequate or nonexistent analysis. Nor must academics deal fre- ecute the operations get the glory. Princess Leia. Aca- This Star Wan vignette accurately summarizes the intelligence process as demics are unlikely to have intercepted telephone communications at their it is popularly viewed.
As a rule. It separates collectors from processors from analysts and too often The cycle then proceeds to collection. Figure illustrates he cycle in elementary form. Collectors have to be tasked to words. Encrypted signals must be decrypted. Most commanders and their staffs have not had in- telligence assignments. Here are some reasons why. The analysis phase also typically includes a peer and supervi- The Traditional Intelligence Cycle sory review of the finished product.
The feedback loop in- herent in a true cycle is absent. Then comes a transition to a definition of the intelligence problem.
From there. The rebel intelligence ef. Usually it takes the form of a rather to new requirements or needs. Ethiopian results in "throwing information over the wall" to become the next person's re- newspapers have to be acquired. That is exactly whai the remainder of this book is nals must be translated into visible imagery. Over the years. The cycle-defined view.
How stable is the gov. Because such a compartmentalized process results in formalised and relatively inflexible requirements at each stage.
As we will get to later. They tend to speak different jargons. Foreign language mater- Logic dictates that the intelligence process should revolve around how ial must be translated. Human imelli. Yet when pressed. No one questions its validity. An ing in practice A brief review of the traditional intelligence cycle will illustrate analyst must create outcome scenarios based on the current Ethiopian situa- why: The finished intelligence must be disseminated to the customer in a writ- The cycle typically begins with a requirements or needs step.
Film or digital sig- best to approach the target. Military intelligence officers often next. But as in the civilian side of government. Analysts have to be assigned to do research The cycle defines an antisocial series of steps that constrains the flow of in- and write a report on Ethiopian government stability formation.
The newly collected and processed material must be brought together ductory texts and courses.
Everyone neatly avoids responsibility for the quality of the final has to be focused on Ethiopian government communications.
In government. This pattern of thinking is taught in the simplest problem. One begins by understanding the question. Designers would create a design and feed it to production. The flaw of this linear problem-solving approach is that it obscures An alternative to the traditional intelligence cycle is to make all stake- the real.
And then marketing started on a new requirements set. The mind does not work linearly—it holders including customers part of the intelligence process. This complex. Here the goal is to construct a shared picture of the target. But it is too often a hit-or-miss proposition because it duction staff sitting in the same room with consumer representatives. Policy makers do not. It is not a linear process. Although producing intelligence is a more complex undertaking than au- quential.
The cars came out at the end and went to a sales force that sold the cars sumers of U. No one had responsibility for the final result.
In the evolving world of information technology. Informal networks communities of in. Stakeholders in jumps around to different parts of [he problem in the process of reaching a so. In practice.
Analysts and their man- ning the cycle anew. Fifty years ago. In large intelligence organizations. In comrast. It flows logically from the more market-oriented products. Council staff. And it is in some respects a defensive one moves from disseminated intelligence to new requirements is almost com. It has been accu- terest increasingly are forming to address the problems that Kent identified rately described within the U.
To include them in the intelligence process. The policy ments for new cars. The cycle is still with us. Military organizations traditional intelligence cycle. And for the newest class of con- line. Analysis techniques are then applied to communities. Marketing staff would come up with require- have a formal system for that to occur. The traditional conception of the intelligence cycle also prevails because it fits a conventional paradigm for problem solving. Today au- agers.
Intelligence analysts. Community-wide information networks. The operations team focused on find- ing Escobar. There are usually many customers for intelligence about needs. From this picture. Martinez is trying to find the exact house derstand the important issues surrounding the target. Because the participants col- This example. All of these are functions that analysts have into "knowledge gaps" or "information requirements" for the collectors to ad.
The team-generated picture of the target is intended to facilitate and en- Let us bring some meaning to the process shown in Figure The date courage interaction among collectors. Pablo Escobar lies dead. Martinez reports to his commander: For example. In the Escobar case. The process is also able to satisfy a wide range of customers from a sin- bia. Because all participants share knowl- tronic intelligence has traced the cell telephone calls of drug kingpin Pablo edge of the target.
They may also add new information needs. But the method that has worked at cell phone conversation abruptly ends. On the building rooftop. Because the signal display on his computer screen and listens to his headphones as his team view is more interactive. Army support team in Colom. The team-gene rated where a desperate Escobar is talking to his son about getting the family out of view brings the full resources of the team to bear on the target.
But it is not all done by analysts. The man turns away. The van stops next to a house. As collectors obtain the needed information. Ten minutes grated. Colombian police lieutenant Hugo Martinez watches the geographically remote from one another.
Escobar would not have been caught if the intelligence search had focused solely on him and had ignored his network. In this case. Five police officers force their much on physical co-location and personal relationships as opposed to inte- way in the front door and exchange gunshots with the occupants. The analyst's job becomes more like that which they provide to the customers. Both customers and providers possess valuable insights about the target. During U. In the target-centric process.
The cus- Analysis: He's in this house. Moving the Predator closer for a better view. It included details of the road network in Afghanistan that could sup- port the BMP and maps delineating areas of Taliban control.
The lysts to include knowledgeable people from the collector. The BMP in Afghanistan collectors. If the operations target is a building such as an em- bassy or a command and control center. Some The target-centric approach has more promise for complex problems and companies have been highly successful at collaboration.
Such details be- process. Unfortunately large intelligence commu- gunship because he had a mental picture of potential Taliban targets. The barriers among BMP fit the picture in its location and characteristics. Involving customers increases the likelihood that process by which different analysts present alternative views of the target. It by ensuring that the competing views share as much information about the has been asserted that in the United States.
The team approach expands the team of ana- nearby.
He calls in an AC Spectre gunship on patrol rial from collectors. Analysts are overloaded with incoming mate- mored personnel carrier. The Target as a Complex System ligence may need to include he floor plan. As Mark participation by all stakeholders. As the BMP example suggests. In the Predator's video. Team members have to have a wealth of mutual trust and under- needs will overlap.
In Norfolk. Intelligence analysis therefore starts by think- teristics. Though depicted as a cycle. Its nonlinear analytic process allows for It is important to note also what the collaborative process is not. It also reminds the customers of or in- Collaboration. A system comprises structure. Function involves the effects or results that the system pro- duces.
As the AC appears on the scene. Process refers to the sequence of events or For collaboration to work—for the extended team to share the data over- activities that produce results. The intelligence officer is under intense pressure to distinguish quickly be- This should not be surprising given that targets are more complex tween a troop carrier and a bus full of villagers. The Predators video display shows a vehicle racing along a mountain road.
Figure provide incentives to share that outweigh the disincentives discussed in the in- is a macro-level picture of a cocaine cartel's structure. Business or- by one as the stream of gunship fire finds them. All intelligence customers are model is essential when intelligence provides such close support to operations. Such a nar- row focus downplays the connections among organizations and individuals— connections that can be the real strength or weakness of an opposing system Transportation taken as a whole.
Each component also has additional func. Whereas communications networks and social networks are useful telligence targets are systems that have subordinate systems. Sometimes the links quantify the rela- drugs. As this example illustrates. A cocaine supply system is a generalized network. It is constantly evolving. It may be easier. As a counterexample. The links the functions of getting cocaine from the processor to the customer.
In social net- a structure of its own. The transportation and distribution infrastructure has things. These individ- ual countries are part of a larger target network bound by ties of mutual mis- A cocaine supply network is a complex system.
In conflicts. Most complex pecially in a bureaucracy. In communications networks. The government of a region is a system—it has structure. The Escobar leadership comprised a subsystem whose structure in. As an example. It does not or illicit organizations. That is the reason why we focus on networks. A cocaine cartel also has several major ample. Each of the components has satellite communications.
Saudi Arabia. A social network exists. The works. Figure Example Target: Several infrastructure types of networks have been defined. Analysts responsible for assessing the capabilities of an air defense net- All intelligence targets are systems. It can. The links show the relationships between people coca supply component.
The links are the communications means. A geographi. The collaborative, collector-analyst-customer, target-centric approach creates Transportation and an effective network to deal with the opposing network. Figure shows the distribution infrastructure example of a cocaine supply target network and some components of the op- Processing posing that is, U.
As the fig- infrastructure ure indicates, it makes sense that U. Coast Guard portation and distribution infrastructure, because much of that infrastructure US. Customs miBtary forces is located within U. Colombian law enforcement, on the other hand, could target both the cartel leadership and its transporta- Intelligence customer network tion and distribution infrastructure, but it would probably find the leadership a more profitable target. The customer network shown in the figure is far from complete, of course; it might include political leadership in he United States Note: Dotted lines represent the control that leadership exerts; solid lines entering the target net- and Colombia, for example, or regional and European government entities work indicate targeting by the intelligence customer netwoyk.
John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt of RAND Corporation have described the Netwar is not the same as information warfare, though the two may over- network target in their discussion of the impact of new communications and in- lap in some problems. Information warfare, also called information operations, formation technologies on military structures, doctrines, and strategies. They encompasses the use of information systems, including computers, communi- coined the term netwctr and defined it as a form of information-related conflict, cations networks, and databases, for competitive advantage against an oppo- in opponents form networks.
Specifically, Arquilla and Ronfeldt use the term to nent. Thus information warfare can be one of the "levers" that are pulled in describe the "societal struggles" thai make use of new technologies. But one can engage in nologies they discuss are available and usable anywhere, as demonstrated by the netwar without attacking the opponent's information systems. Zapatista netwar: Department of Defense, netwar is currently referred to as ico, by the Zapatista National Liberation Army, and the Mexican government's network-centric warfare.
The Zapatista insurgents skillfully used a globa] media survive—in the changing system campaign to create a supporting network of NGOs and embarrass the Mexican government in a form of asymmetric attack a form of conflict that exploits dis- Network-centric warfare is not a new concept in the business world.
Participants in that network. Historically, on problems. If those disincentives can be removed, commercial world. In Wal-Mart's ligence organizations in being both target-centnc and network-centric. What do we suppliers in near-real time, so that they can better control production and dis- need to learn about the target that our customers do not already know? This tribution, as well as manage their own supply chains for Wal-Mart products. The next chapter discusses how to define the in- created by Deutsche Morgan Grenfell,19 Autobahn replaces the traditional, telligence problem.
Notes The advantage that the network-centric approach gives companies such as Wal- 1. A deaii drop is a temporary concealment place for material that is in transit between two clan- Mart and Deutsche Morgan Grenfell forces their competitors to adopt similar destine intelligence operatives who cannot risk a face-to-face meeting.
A tin can next to a park approaches or lose out in competition. Quorum Books, Business intelligence might be ahead of government intelligence in apply- , Even military organizations, with their traditions of hi- 3. David Kennedy and Leslie Brunetta, "Lebanon and the Intelligence Community," case study erarchical structure, are considenng the advantages of the network structure.
In cases when national intelligence efforts must deal with commercial entities, 4. Theory and as they do in economic: Douglas H. Dearth and R. Thomas Goodden Washington, D. Furthermore, NGOs are becoming more involved in military, economic, September 2, V Joseph Broadwaler, "! National Reconnaissance Office, Washington, D.
Mark Bowden. Magnuson, ''Satellite Data Distribution. It supports opera- 9. Report of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of tions, and it is always concerned with a target. Traditionally, intelligence has Mass Destruction, March 31, , www.
Robert D. Steele, "The New Craft of Intelligence," advance review draft intended for general tion, processing, analysis and production, dissemination, then back to re- circulation, July 6, , available from the author at hear oss.
Mark M. That traditional view has several shortcomings. The traditional Hememann, RAND Corporation, Arquilla and Ronfeldt Washington. Garslka, "Network-Centric Warfare: Its Ongm and Future," technology are aiding this transition. Proceedings of the Naval Institute , no. Liam Fahey, Competitors New York: John Wiley and Sons, , All significant intelligence targets of this target-centric network are com- Doubleday, , As such, they Leadership and Strategy in the Age of Business Ecosys- can almost always be represented structurally as dynamic networks—oppos- tems New York: HarperBusmess, Conflict with such networks Cebrowski and Garstka, "Network-Centric Warfare.
PLA Literature and Arts, , has been called netwar or network-cert frit conflict. In dealing with opposing net- For now, the important thing to understand is that struc- tured argumentation always stans by breaking a problem down into parts, so that each part can be examined systematically. Determine when the product must be delivered. Usually, the customer wants the report yesterday. In Indeed, they disbelieve what they cannot grasp.
Also, tight deadlines are increasingly a problem in. T he preceding chapter focused on the intelligence target—in most cases, a complex network For such targets, there are typically several people who all areas of intelligence; the customer values having immediate, precise, and detailed intelligence.
The target-centric approach can dramatically cut the time required to get actionable intelligence to are interested in receiving intelligence, and those customers typically have dif- ferent interests or different intelligence problems 10 which they want answers. For example, the U. Identify the intelligence customers and try to oil well activity to estimate current production; a military field commander understand their needs.
The traditional process typically involves might be interested in the same oil well activity o prevent the wellheads from several intermediaries, and the needs inevitably become distorted being destroyed.
All intelligence analysis efforts therefore start with some form as they move through the communications channels. Also, even if of problem definition. It helps to keep in mind ever, is almost always incomplete, and it may even be unintentionally mislead- the second-order customers and their needs, as well. Intelligence efforts usually have one mam pur- understand the problem in detail.
He or she must determine why the intelli- pose. The purpose should be clear to all participants when the ef- gence analysis is being requested and what decisions the results will support.
The success of analysis depends on an accurate problem definition. As one se- For instance, the main purpose might be to provide intelligence to nior policy customer commented concerning intelligence failures, "Sometimes, support trade negotiations between the United States and the Eu- what they [the intelligence officers] think is important is not, and what they ropean Union. A number of more specific intelligence purposes think is not important, is.
At the beginning of a task, novices tend to attempt imme- tiators. Again, customer involvement helps to make the purpose diately to solve the perceived customer problem. Veteran analysts spend more clear to the analyst.
They use their knowledge of previous cases as context for creating mental models to solve the problem.
Written re- to recognize occasions when they lack information necessary to solve a prob- ports increasingly in electronic form are standard in the intelli- lem,2 in part because they spend enough time at the beginning, in the prob- gence business because they endure and can be distributed widely.
In cases such as the complex problems that are discussed When the result goes to a single customer, or when it is extremely in this chapter, problem definition should be about half of an analysts work. Briefings Problem definition is the first step in a process that is known as structured have the advantage of customer interaction and feedback, along argumentation. We will gel into the details of structured argumentation in the with certainty that the intended recipient gets the message.
Studies have shown that customers never read most written intelligence. It also makes many families were in the city. Think of it as a additional guidance that may have no relevance to the original customer's in. Ask the customer if the request is correctly framed. The layers of an organization. Defense Depart- want to hear from U. Obtain as much background knowledge tional results or conclusions. Either exercise will help all participants customers.
In Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task such situations. The problem of communication is so pervasive in intelligence The basic technique for defining a problem in detail has had many names.
Deconstruct the highest level disconnect between intelligence and the customer was a foreign policy deba. So briefings or ideally constant When the final intelligence product is to be a written report. When the United how many pianos a tuner can tune a year. How many piano for the original request—the executive.
But to be addressed or questions to be answered. The precis should include the problem definition or question. For large projects.
The answer could be reached using the sort of in- ficer. The process lected issues. On large rnultiweek intelligence projects. Start from the problem definition policymakers can sometimes choose not to be informed by intelligence on se. On October A question about the current Whether the precis approach or the notional briefing is used.
This en. A vaguely worded request for information is usually the final briefing slides. If the intelligence product is to be a briefing.
At problem statement. A question that travels through several such layers often has become the analysis later uncover alternative approaches—as it often does. The purpose of this step is to narrow the prob. It is then much easier to focus on view of the collection and analysis team. These subtasks are sometimes called answering the questions that the customer wants answered.
If possible. At the task level. The time spent fo. The United States subsequently withdrew from Lebanon. Chapter 15 deals with how to respond when the customer is an. The problem definition product helps and the priorities of that customer. Nobel laureate Enrico Fermi championed the technique of taking a seemingly The request should be specific and stripped of unwanted excess. If the problem were an overall assessment of a country's economy. Maintenance requirements.
The strategies-to-task breakdown follows the classic method for like that shown in Figure Terms of trade. But a strategies-to-task breakdown can be much more specific and Region XI is difficult to answer without first answering the more specific ques. At the bottom level. Loan default rates Financial Transparency. A few examples from different national pol. Bank failures performance electoral systems relationships terrorism. Progress toward vs. Justice Civil-military rights elections.
Insurgency or — Budget deficit Foreign Equity price systems Corruption. For simplicity. What impact will sanctions have on the economy? No matter how narrow the top-level intelligence task. Again referring to Figure If the job is to assess the capa- ligence target. What is the political situation in nomic. It results in a requirements or needs hierarchy that is widely four of thirteen bottom-level question sets. In such a network, analysts are directly accountable for the work, and a decision maker or consumer's questions help the intelligence process by leading by pushing the analyst to challenge and refine his or her own work.
It is important to note that agencies constantly modify the traditional, pure model in intelligence practice. For example, various "centers" under the Director of National Intelligence deliberately put collectors and analysts into teams.
Everyone neatly avoids responsibility for the quality of the final product. According to April and Bessa, CIAD is a linear process where the intelligence product moves upward through the layers of the organization. In contrast, CTI is a more networked model.
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They found that the organizational structure associated with CIAD prevents open-sharing of information and ideas, and is a stumbling block to intelligence analysis. Eliot A. Jardines , President of Open Source Publishing, Incorporated, presented a statement and supported the target-centric approach to intelligence.
According to Mr. Jardines, Dr. Robert Clark "proposes a more target-centric, iterative and collaborative approach which would be far more effective than our current traditional intelligence cycle. Each individual can question the model and get answers along the way. The target-centric model is a network process where the information flows unconstrained among all participants, who also focus on the objective to create a shared picture of the target.
Creating the model[ edit ] Target-centric intelligence cycle Models in intelligence[ edit ] Conceptual models are useful for the analytic process, and are particularly helpful to help understand the target-centric approach to intelligence. A conceptual model is an abstract invention of the mind that best incorporates and takes advantage of an analyst's thought process. The model allows the analyst to use a powerful descriptive tool to both estimate current situations and predict future circumstances.
This is where the analyst must research, gather information, and synthesize to populate the model. For an analyst to successfully populate a model for a complex target, he or she must find information from a wide range of both classified and unclassified sources.
This includes retrieving information from the body of existing intelligence. Even though open source information is inexpensive or free, and easily accessible, it can be just as useful as the more specialized, technical intelligence sources that are expensive to use. Finally, after the analyst examines each piece of data, the analyst must incorporate the information into the target model. As the body of information builds in the model, the analyst can more easily determine where there are inconsistencies in conclusions.
This requires the analyst to carry out further research to support or deny a particular conclusion. Also, as the analyst populates the model, the target model shows where gaps exist in the model. These gaps also force the analyst to collect additional information to more completely describe the target.Attrition rates in combat. A typ- John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt. Analysts don't want to miss the indicators and fail to give a warning.
The target-centric approach to intelligence does not aim to deny other intelligence processes. The content of the book doesn't suffer at all, but some potential readers might be put off by this. Stew Magnusiin. Several current examples have been added to emphasize lessons about What I call a target-centric intelligence process helps analysts and customers the intelligence process.
A stochastic process is one in which die events of the process are determined by chance. German deserters who told the Russians about the impending attack were considered provocateurs and shot on Stalin's orders. This makes them difficult to deal with.
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